SCOTCH IS SO SMOOTH
NEVER BEFORE has there been such demand for Scotch whisky. Unfortunately, we are a culture of instant gratification and Scotch is a spirit that needs years of aging. A new report from Rabobank, titled NOW THAT’S SMOOTH, provides both an assessment of the category as well as suggestions for managing the growth: “Scotch whisky is currently enjoying a boom due to growing demand in the US and emerging markets. The industry is ramping up production to rebuild the declining stocks of longer aged whiskies. However, while production growth is warranted, a smoother rate of production growth could help reduce the industry’s historic shifts between excess supply and shortages,” Rabobank analyst Stephen Rannekleiv said. “The long maturation process of Scotch adds to the challenges of trying to match current production with uncertain future demand. As a result, the Scotch whisky industry has historically suffered from the acute cyclicality of production, which has led to periods of excess supply followed by periods of shortage.” The report makes three recommendations: 1 Continue to grow production, but smooth out the lumps: The production cycles in Scotch seem fairly predictable, generally moving in six to seven-year cycles (peak to peak) in which annual production increases range from 3O% to 5O%, and then return to near previous lows. These peaks and troughs typically create periods of excess supply, followed by periods of tight inventories. The Scotch industry should attempt to achieve more stable production growth in the future, eliminating the surges and declines that have been characteristic of the past. 2 Resist the temptation to ramp up production too quickly: From 2OO6 to 2O12, total inventories rose 17%, while annual consumption rose just over 11%. This level of growth is clearly needed in the short term to create future availability of aged stocks, but at some point the production should return to a more rational rate of growth more in line with a slightly conservative projection of consumption growth. For the Scotch industry, aiming to guide inventory growth based on projections that err on the side of conservative rather than optimistic forecasts will inevitably lead to occasional missed sales opportunities. For a category that seeks to build its premium image based on a perception of scarcity, this would be preferable to allowing excess inventories to flood the market. 3 Prepare for innovation rather than discounting: At some point, a return to industry oversupply is probably inevitable, and the industry should be prepared. In the current environment, whiskies of other origins (particularly American and Canadian) are generating tremendous growth through flavor innovations. In the future, should oversupply return, expansion into flavor extensions would be a better response from a strategic perspective than the discounting seen in the past, which also serves to undermine the prestige of the category. While this may not be appropriate for all brands, blended whisky brands in basic and premium price areas may need to innovate to retain relevance with their consumers in the face of increasing competition from other whiskies.
