TRENDS for 2O26-A LOOK INTO THE CRYSTAL BALL FOR THE YEAR AHEAD

By Maia Merrill Gosselin
Love ‘em or leave ‘em, trends matter. They grab hold of us (usually through social media) and influence purchasing both in the on- and off-premise. Just consider the Cosmopolitan, Fireball, and Espresso Martini, to name a few cultural trends that had seismic impacts on sales. But in today’s penny-pinching environment, every dollar counts, now more than ever. Spending will certainly be more cautious in the coming year so what people choose to buy is paramount to pay attention to. We caught up with a few industry experts from retailers to consultants for their take on what the coming year has in store.

Before we take a look at the tea leaves, some good news: Massachusetts consumers like their libations. According to SmartAsset, which analyzed data from the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, the average adult in Massachusetts spent $1,185.54 last year on alcohol and the state as a whole paid $6,470.3 million. That’s the fourth highest nationally (Alaska clocked in at #1)!

A RETAIL EXPERT’S TAKE ON TODAY’S TRENDS
The bev alcohol industry had a challenging year as economic woes, health consciousness, and tariffs impacted sales across all demographics. GARY PARK, President of Gary’s Liquors in Chestnut Hill offers his insights into the current climate: “The industry is not just returning to pre-pandemic levels, it is retreating back to 2008 and 2009, which was also a very challenging time. I also believe the decline comes from this new generation of 21+ that spent the pandemic away from other people. Alcohol is mainly enjoyed in social situations, and I believe that’s because they spent all their time online and in seclusion. I have two daughters in high school who were too young to really understand the impact of isolation during COVID and their ambitions to find a party every weekend shows me this will correct itself very shortly. We are also beginning to feel the effects of tariffs. I’m starting to see a lot of price increases coming across the board from all categories.

I saw prices jump like crazy during the pandemic and the excuses as to why were endless. Prices never came back down and, in my opinion, suppliers should be eating almost all the increases in these challenging times. They got used to making crazy money and need to change their mindset to more realistic levels. All I see now is suppliers and wholesalers trying to ‘save’ money everywhere. Cuts in services and manpower are beginning to take their toll. We need the industry returning to the days where the main focus was driving sales, not cutting costs. We (the entire industry) need to get back to basics and create demand through innovation, advertising, and value. I’m looking to create opportunities all the time. You can find deals out there if you look hard enough. Value and service is what has kept my family in this business for the last 84 years and we aren’t giving up on this industry.”

GARY’S PREDICTIONS FOR BEER, WINE, SPIRITS, & NO/LOW:
BEER “The economy will definitely cause a shakeup and reduce the number of options. This has happened before, but there is and will always be a demand for great craft beer. The strong will survive.”

WINE “The affordable wines in the $8-$20 range will continue to be what gets people into my store. La Marca prosecco was an absolute BEAST during this year’s holiday season. People were drinking plenty of bubbles, just not as expensive as in previous years. It’s that $20 and up segment that is going to be tough but I’m sure there will be plenty of deals on items that have slowed down and will also create some opportunities.”

SPIRITS “I’ve seen more suppliers in this category working harder to keep prices in check, especially scotch. There are still plenty of reasonably priced options. Tequila got greedy and we are seeing a slide. There is more bourbon available, so I wouldn’t say the bubble burst as much as supply is catching up with demand. Vodka still trending down…. I believe that’s because of the biggest trend over the past few years: RTD’s!!! The younger generation is looking for CHEAP, SWEET, and STRONG!!! They went from Soju to XXL and now on to Cutwater and similar brands. This has been the category that has hurt vodka and tequila because it’s a cheaper option.”

“The NO/LOW category is something I plan on increasing despite my strong objections to promoting abstinence. I plan on centralizing all items in one spot. Basically, to leverage the demand from strong brands like Athletic Brewing. I think letting the consumer see all those options in one section will help. I remain optimistic that things will begin to improve if we get back to the basics. Price, promotion, and service. The consumers are out there and we need to do a better job of getting them back.”

IN THE SPIRIT
Both tequila and American whiskey had challenging 2025s. Long the darling of the spirits world, tequila saw sales slow while American whiskey, bourbon in particular, experienced a more significant drop. Spirits specialist and brand consultant SAILOR GUEVARA weighs in with her predictions on two of the industry’s biggest categories as well as her thoughts on RTDs:

TEQUILA “Tequila’s upward trajectory in sales and popularity in the US would likely have continued if not for several significant headwinds. Recent tariffs, rising costs of goods, and a growing climate of anti-immigrant sentiment have unfortunately affected the category. Simultaneously, American alcohol consumers are now more informed than ever before, with a marked increase in demand for high-quality spirits. Industry data consistently shows that younger generations, particularly Gen Z, prioritize products that are not only well-crafted and environmentally responsible, but also produced by companies whose values align with their own. This may drive a shift toward brands that offer greater transparency and authenticity.”

AMERICAN WHISKEY “I’m honestly not worried about the passion for American whiskey – it’s still strong, and people still want to drink it. But I definitely have some hot takes here. For one, I think a market correction was honestly overdue. The real issue wasn’t the small craft distilleries; it was more about investor groups swooping in, buying and flipping hundreds or even thousands of barrels just to turn a quick profit. Add to that a wave of people chasing fast money and hyping the market, and you end up with a bubble that just couldn’t last. Layer on top the headaches of tariffs with wild increases in costs of goods and suddenly the whole industry is staring down some pretty serious challenges. Here’s the silver lining: the community of American whiskey lovers is still going strong, and the passion for these spirits hasn’t gone anywhere. I’m confident that the market will eventually find its balance. Ideally, this shakeout will leave us with the folks who are genuinely dedicated to the craft — people who truly belong in the whiskey business – while those who were only in it for a quick buck will exit. I’ll be honest, it’s tough to watch friends and colleagues, many of whom have poured decades into the industry, facing real hardship and, in some cases, having to close up shop. While bourbon and American whiskey as categories are resilient and will ultimately weather the storm, there’s no denying that the short-term pain for individuals and small businesses is real, and it’s honestly heartbreaking to witness.”

RTDs “These have truly cemented their place in the beverage world. From the early days of Bartles & Jaymes wine coolers and Boone’s Farm Strawberry Hill (shoutout to those throwback classics!), this category was pretty much destined for explosive growth. What’s especially cool is how far things have come. These days, the landscape has evolved from simple hard seltzers to sophisticated, bar-quality cocktails in a can or bottle. Smaller producers are really pushing the envelope with unique, chef-driven recipes and locally inspired flavors, raising the bar for what people expect from a pre-made drink.

One of the biggest shifts I’m seeing is the way bars and restaurants are embracing RTDs. Instead of viewing them as competition, many on-premise accounts are partnering with local brands to offer genuinely great, premium RTDs behind the bar. This not only helps speed up service — especially during those slammed Friday nights — but also ensures that even less-experienced bartenders can serve up a killer Martini or Old Fashioned every time. It’s a win-win for consistency and quality. The harmony here is real, and I’m convinced this collaborative approach will become an even bigger trend this year.”

WINE TRENDS IN RETAIL
IN VINO VERITAS Wine in particular struggled globally with its traditional consumer demographics. What will 2026 will bring for buying trends? LAUREN CLARK, co-owner of The Tip Top Wine Shop in Easthampton and a longtime industry professional, weighs in. Despite today’s challenges, she remarks that: “Our shop is in growth mode. In 2026, many customers will stick with their favorite lower-priced bottles, but a significant number will spend more money on wines that still present a good value. And membership in our wine club is growing, which tells us that people are willing to spend a certain amount to discover two to four new wines that we select each month.”

REGIONS TO WATCH “Portugal for sure, as well as Greece and the country of Georgia. A lot of our wines are made with grapes most people have never heard of, but when they get a taste – especially of a bottle under $20 – they get on board.”

BUBBLES STILL HAVE POP “Prosecco will probably continue to dominate in the world at large, but…when people come into our shop asking for Prosecco, we show them what we have and then point out the range of other delightful, relatively inexpensive bubbles like dry Spumante, Cava and pet nat. As for Champagne, we stock a good range of grower Champagnes, which people really seem to dig.”

ROSÉ IS STILL COMING UP ROSES “Out here in the ‘sticks,’ people are still discovering rosé, so I think it will continue to do really well in the spring and summer. (There’s a special place in my heart for people who drink rosé year ‘round.) Our customers seem happy to try rosé from all over Europe and the U.S. It’s such a friendly category.”

ALTERNATE PACKAGING: DRINKING INSIDE THE BOX “There’s some really good wine available in bag-in-box, such as Ami Ami and From the Tank (both from France). They sell steadily here. Our canned wines are also quite popular. The 250ml size is perfect for musicians who want a little something to drink while they use the recording and rehearsal spaces within the old mill complex we’re a part of. Customers are also really embracing our wine-based amari and aperitif wines, which I love to see! And we’re turning people onto Farthest Star’s wonderful sakes, brewed right in Medfield, MA.”

ON-PREMISE POSSIBILITIES
TREAT YOURSELF: IT’S A LIPSTICK ECONOMY AND WE’RE ALL WEARING CHANEL
The “Lipstick Economy” or “Lipstick Effect” refers to the concept that in times of economic downturn, consumers increase their purchases of “affordable luxuries” as ways to treat themselves. Historically, over the past decades, this has been seen with lipstick in particular but can also apply to alcohol as well. As one industry expert/insider puts it: “We are definitely in our ‘lipstick economy’ era, so I expect to see ‘affordable luxuries’ popping up on cocktail menus, for example, ‘mini’ martinis, flights or unique food and drink pairings packaged into a specific serve. I think smart operators will lean into this as marketing can go a long way to distract from smaller sizes to help hit tight margins. For example, unique glassware or an adorable, Instagram-able serve can easily take a guest’s mind off the reduced size of their cocktail. I’ve worked in this industry my whole life and I still fall for this kind of thing.”

She adds, “Shots and shooters have been trending for a while and not just in dive bars or with industry pals. Making them tasty and classy as a part of a drink program, either a section on the menu or as a sort of amuse bouche or digestif, can be another way to add an affordable upsell or perceived value to a guest’s experience. If you were a bartender in the 1990s, don’t be afraid to dust off some of those old recipes! If your guests weren’t alive then, they might find a Sex on the Beach shot a delight. Drink & food specials at non-peak times or on midweek evenings are nothing new, but I’ve been excited to see places offering specials like a $25 martini + fries combo. When a glass of wine can cost $25 in some Boston restaurants, this feels like a steal.”

JON SANTER, who manages National Events for Liquid Productions, a beverage consulting company notes: “First and foremost customers are looking for a genuine connection and warm hospitality. People will be going out less, so each visit counts more and they’ll want to go somewhere they already know and trust. Second, they’ll be looking for novel experiences and/or to really blow it out once in a while.” He adds that we’ll be seeing: “Budget friendly options; no and low, spritzes, inverted cocktails (maybe?), classics will continue to trend, smaller drinks, savory flavors, large format ice.” And for a sleeper hit? “Wildly expensive/antique ingredient cocktails.”

Sailor Guevara offers up her final thoughts: “The coming year will be challenging for both businesses and consumers. My guess is that people will gravitate toward familiar brands and neighborhood spots they trust. Comfort and reliability will be big themes. And honestly, I see a lot of folks, myself included, adopting a ‘treat yourself’ mentality for 2026. Whether it’s splurging on a favorite cocktail or indulging in a bit of self-care, people are looking for small joys wherever they can find them. For bars, restaurants, and brands, I think the smartest move is to double down on what you do best: streamline operations, focus on signature offerings, and be ready to ride out the turbulence. These tough times won’t last forever, so trust your instincts and hang in there.”

WHAT WILL BE IN THE COCKTAIL GLASS?
KEVIN DENTON-REX, the Director of the Spirits Authority for Liquid Productions beverage consulting company provides his predictions based off data gathered from top cocktail bars in ten markets:

FLAVORS AND DRINK STYLES THAT STOOD OUT “There were a few macro trends that were easily observed, but none quite as apparent as the dominance of savory ingredients. The reaction against “not too sweet” has gone from bracingly bitter to more on the “salty” side. If one cocktail is having its moment, it’s the Dirty Martini.”

SAVORY AND VEGETAL
•Tomato, cucumber, pepper, herbs, mushroom, seaweed, brines will be everywhere.
•Most often they appear in Martinis and stirred drinks, but also Highballs.
•This appeal to the salty side leads to:

TOP BARS CONTINUE TO EMBRACE FERMENTATION AND UMAMI DRIVERS
•Koji, miso, kombu, tepache, vinegar, and pulque are mainstreaming.
•House ferments are used as seasoning and depth, not headline flavor. Concentrated in high-skill programs, these dovetail with another big trend:

DAIRY AND THE TEXTURE BOOM
•Milk punch, whey, yogurt, cream used to soften bitterness
and integrate flavors.
•Everyone seems to be talking texture- be it fluffy, velvety, or whipped, bartenders are exploring beyond flavor to distinguish their drinks.
•Dairy, therefore, is applied more technically and adaptogenically (protein).

COFFEE BEYOND ESPRESSO MARTINIS
•Coffee, cold brew, coffee fruit, and cacao show up in multiple formats frequently paired with amaro, spice, dairy, or nut flavors. What’s new about this is how it’s being layered with ingredients not traditionally paired with coffee (Espresso Margarita).